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NIFTY DAILY - MUTED EXPIRY

Nifty closed in green at 5149 with marginal gains of 7 odd points.As expected expiry happened to be below 5200.Past few weeks markets were struggling in a tight range of 5200 and 5090.In this series  markets have made up much of the losses in the previous month.We are feeling a sense of peak skepticism with mildly bullish bias.But in view of the domestic and global turmoil longevity of this rally is suspected.I strongly feel that situation will get worse before getting better.
                                                                         The reason for my being bearish is due to seasonal cycle theory.Our markets followed an alternative positive and negative patterns for MAY month.This trend broke in 2011,the MAY month of 2011 was supposed to be positive considering the pattern ,but it ended in negative .This year also MAY ended  with a negative candle.This could be taken as an indication that seasonal pattern  has deviated towards negative.So according to theory we should be selling in MAY ,following that markets are expected to show a bottom at around mid to end AUGUST.      
                                             Buying could be done at the start of SEPTEMBER,probably markets are Rise in NOVEMBER and peak in JANUARY.  We are therefore bullish following this year.Currently the overall scenario is favoring the theory,but things don't take time to change,Hence we cant bet on it blindly ,but definitely we can start relying as and when we start  getting the evidences.
                                                                                                                  As of now we just can expect the JULY series to be rejuvenating,and bring some relief to the markets.

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