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NIFTY DAILY - 5080 CRUCIAL

Nifty closed in red at 5146 after nominal 18 odd point loss. The overall market breadth remain negative with 696 advances to 766 declines.The markets opened with gap down of nearly 65 odd points on the board,following strong negative global cues.The second impact was of rupee depreciating further to new lows.Though after a weak opening markets managed to cover initial losses.From past three days it is evident from the charts that 5080 level is a vitalizing support in the further movement .Successful buying around these level has been observed consistently,leading to strengthening of the bulls.The carts also are depicting the same scenario.
                       But taking a look at the larger picture that our economy is facing serious financial turmoil,also our monetary policy need to undergo reformation,which is expected to be subsequently supporting for our economy as well as our markets.We need to see the fact that  we are lacking the serious material for moving forward ,in such a case the longevity of the existing rally is suspected.As of now bulls are above the support level,if  the outcome of the monetary policy as well as efforts turn positive we might see this rally continuing 5400,also 5630 would seem approachable.
                       Technically the weekly charts look like a concern since the MACD has not yet given a positive crossover and also the momentum indicator Stochastic has already entered overbought territory and now  curving a bit.Looking at this 5200 seems a vital obstacle moving up.If this time markets reverses prior breaking 5200 possibility of downside increases,and this time i expect markets to touch new lows.Certainly it is true that  coming days will make the picture more clear,Till then we can be long until we don't get enough evidence of a possible downside reversal.
                                                 Expecting the coming week to be choppy in view of expiry i  suggest traders to be more cautious and trade with strict stop losses

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